Ontario Election 2018: 16 make-or-break races in the 416 and 905

It’s in seat-rich Toronto and the 905 that Ontario Election 2018 will be won or lost on June 7. Here's an inside look at the closest battles in the GTA.

Nowtoronto.ca
Enzo DiMatteo
May 31, 2018

Electioneering dog for Marit Stiles campaign in Davenport.

The Libs cleaned up in 2014 on their way to a majority. But this time around the GTA is where most of the PCs’ support is concentrated. For the NDP, which won one seat in the 905 in 2014, their sights are set on a clean sweep of five Brampton-area ridings.

Davenport

Government relations firm Counsel Public Affairs has released its list of five Toronto ridings to watch, and Davenport is among them. (See also Don Valley East, Parkdale-High Park, Scarborough North, York Centre). This increasingly gentrifying riding is held by Liberal Cristina Martins, but Counsel sees a win for the NDP here – and in candidate Marit Stiles, a future leadership contender. “Stiles is an effective and media-savvy campaigner who will be able to draw upon a strong network of support both in the riding and across Toronto,” says Counsel.

Don Valley East

This race between trusted Liberal cabinet minister Michael Coteau and the PCs’ Denzil Minnan-Wong is shaping up to be “the city’s marquee match-up,” says Counsel. Coteau “can expect to expend a lot of... shoe leather to keep his seat.” Minnan-Wong’s fortunes, however, continue to be tied to the unpredictable ebb and flow of PC leader Doug Ford in Toronto.

Etobicoke Centre

Even though Liberal incumbent Yvan Baker won by more than 50 per cent of the vote in 2014, this riding was thought to be a potential takeaway for the PCs. It’s where Doug Ford happens to live here. But a PC win is looking more complicated after revelations last week that the PC leader was involved in a vote-buying scam in support of the local PC candidate Kinga Surma, a political neophyte whose relationship to Ford has been fodder for the Queen’s Park rumour mill ever since Ford won the leadership. Stay tuned.

Mahamud Amin is making some noise for the NDP in Ford Nation's backyard in Etobicoke North.

Etobicoke North

PC leader Doug Ford is running here, in the riding he represented as Toronto councillor. Liberal incumbent Shafiq Qaadri, the first person of Pakistani descent to become an MPP in Ontario, has held it since 2003. But it’s the NDP candidate, Somali youth worker Mahamud Amin, who’s making some noise. NDP leader Andrea Horwath visited the riding this week to make a campaign announcement. Unfortunately, for the Libs, Qaadri decided to crash the event, for which he would later have to apologize. Noteworthy: the PCs finished third here behind the NDP in 2014.

Humber River-Black Creek

This one is a bit off the radar, but the NDP, which won almost 40 per cent of the vote in 2014 to the Libs’ 47 per cent, will be looking to capitalize on that showing by running again with candidate Tom Rakocevic, executive assistant to local councillor Anthony Perruzza. Lawyer Deanna Sgro, daughter of local Liberal MP Judy Sgro, is carrying the flag this time for the Grits.

Parkdale-High Park

Changing demographics will make this riding, held for a decade by former NDP MPP Cheri Di Novo (before she announced her retirement from politics last year), a tough one to hold onto for the NDP. According to Counsel Public Affairs, the area has become “markedly more Liberal-friendly. Sky-high housing demand, soaring real estate prices and rapid construction and gentrification have changed the character of traditionally blue-collar neighbourhoods across the riding.”

Scarborough Centre

NDP leader Andrea Horwath has been in the riding held by retiring Liberal MPP Brad Duguid three times in the last couple of weeks, which should tell you all you need to know about what the NDP think of their chances here.

Scarborough North

The PCs “face a dogged battle,” says Counsel Public Affairs, to hold the only seat they currently have in Toronto, won by Raymond Cho in a 2016 by-election. Cho enjoys Ford’s support (he was one of only two PC caucus members to endorse Doug Ford’s leadership campaign), but Liberal rival Chin Lee, his former council colleague, has represented a big chunk of this newly-configured riding as a councillor. Advantage Lee.

University-Rosedale

The NDP are pushing Jessica Bell hard in this new riding composed of parts of the old Trinity-Spadina riding that used to be held by Rosario Marchese since 1999 until he lost it to Liberal Han Dong in 2014, who is running next door in Spadina-Fort York. Noteworthy: Green candidate Tim Grant is holding his own in the sign wars.

York Centre

The race in this Grit stronghold between first-time Liberal candidate Ramon Estaris and PC Roman Baber will be a bellwether for Liberal fortunes election night. Counsel Public Affairs speculates that Estaris’s nomination win over popular community advocate Louise Russo will undermine Liberal efforts here, despite Estaris’s connection to the area’s growing Filipino community.

York South-Weston

The Liberals and NDP have tussled mightily over this working class riding in the city’s northwest since Paul Ferreira took it for the Dippers in a by-election in 2007, only to relinquish it a few months later in the general election to Laura Albanese, who has been the incumbent ever since, beating back two subsequent challenges from Ferreira on the strength of her connections to the Italo-Canadian community. The NDP is running housing activist Faisal Hassan, a former assistant to NDP MP Mike Sullivan, his time.

The PCs' star candidate in Ajax is in tough against local fave Joe Dickson.

Ajax

Rod Phillips, the former Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation CEO and Postmedia exec tapped as a star for the PCs, has reportedly bought a house here to take the sting out of questions about being parachuted into the riding against long-time local incumbent, Liberal Joe Dickson. No word on whether Phillips plans to sell his Rosedale manse should he win. His campaign signs, meanwhile, seem to be taking up more space on road allowances than on the front lawns of voters. Key issue: the future of Ajax Downs.

Brampton East

Gurratan Singh, younger brother of federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, is running for the NDP here, making this riding ground zero for the NDP’s offensive in the 905. Horwath was in the riding for a rally with Singh on Victoria Day. The PCs, who were hoping to come up the middle here, have been forced to replace their candidate Simmer Sandhu, the now former ETR employee who has been implicated in the vote-buying scandal hanging over the PCs’ provincial prospects like a dark cloud.

Mississauga Centre

Tanya Granic Allen, who put Ford over the top in the PC leadership, was dumped as the candidate here a few weeks back. It all seems so long ago. According to a statement released by the party, Granic Allen was disqualified for “irresponsible” comments about gay marriage made in a 2014 video uncovered by the Liberal party. The move has raised a number of questions, including why Ford didn’t disqualify Granic Allen when news surfaced earlier about offensive comments she’s made in the past about gay marriage and the Muslim community. (Some 17 per cent of the riding’s population identifies as Muslim.) Granic’s SoCon supporters have vowed to mobilize against Ford, who still has high hopes here, campaigning in the riding on May 16.

Liberal finance minister Charles Sousa has Hazel McCallion's endorsement in Mississauga Lakeshore.

 

Mississauga-Lakeshore

Kathleen Wynne’s finance minister Charles Sousa looks vulnerable against the PCs’ Rudy Cuzzetto, a recruit of former PC leader Patrick Brown. But Sousa has recently won the endorsement of former Mississauga mayor Hazel McCallion, which is usually gold in these parts, except that McCallion has also endorsed Ford over Wynne, whom she endorsed in 2014.

Vaughan-Woodbridge

Liberal incumbent Steven Del Duca, Wynne’s Minister of Economic Development and Growth, took more than 50 per cent of the vote to win this riding formerly known as Vaughan in a by-election in 2012. He won by a wider margin in the general election in 2014. Del Duca’s tenure has also been marked by some controversy on the GO Transit file. But it’s the prevailing winds of change blowing in the 905 that has observers calling this a close one. Brampton lawyer Michael Tibollo, who lost the federal Conservative nomination to run in King-Vaughan in 2014, is running for the PCs.