Updated Scarborough subway costs will be ready but not made public before the next election

A briefing for Mayor John Tory prepared in October says the updated costs for the controversial subway project will be ready in September 2018 but released in January 2019.

Thestar.com
Feb. 6, 2018
Jennifer Pagliaro

Mayor John Tory was told an updated cost of the one-stop Scarborough subway extension would be available in September -- at least a month before the municipal election.

In an October 2017 briefing prepared for the mayor and obtained by the Star through a freedom of information request, the TTC told Tory that the updated costs would be ready ahead of voting day.

But city staff have said they won’t report the updated figure until after the election -- in January 2019 -- because there are no council meetings scheduled after July of this year. The cost is expected to rise above the current $3.35 billion.

On Tuesday, Tory would not commit to making the updated cost public before the election.

“There’s a process that is in place to have a report come back to the city council to indicate what the cost of the Scarborough subway will be based on the level of design that has been reached as of that time,” Tory said. “The process has been set in place, it was approved by city council, it was approved in a very transparent, open way at a public meeting, and I will follow that process.”

In March 2017, council voted that staff should report back to executive committee when the subway has reached 30 per cent design. At that point, council will decide whether to proceed with the project.

Tory, who has said he’ll seek re-election on Oct. 22, has faced continued criticism of his support of the subway extension -- a promise he made in 2014 as he faced off against Rob Ford and then Doug Ford, who were subway backers.

Questions about the city’s transit priorities -- Tory has championed both the Scarborough subway and his “SmartTrack” plan he promised would bring “city-wide” relief — has been renewed as overcrowding on the Yonge line has raised safety concerns.

Numerous transit experts, including former TTC CEO Andy Byford, have repeatedly said a downtown relief line subway is desperately needed and should be the top priority.

To date, there is no money committed to fund construction of that line from Pape station on Line 2 to Line 1 at Queen and Osgoode stations, estimated at $6.8 billion. The city and province had committed $100 million for planning.

In December 2016, Tory and a majority of councillors voted against a motion asking staff to determine the priority of Toronto’s infrastructure projects to be funded by any new revenue tools based on evidence-based planning and need.

Tory’s critics on council, academics and transit advocates have said the support of a Scarborough subway defies evidence that a light-rail alternative that was previously planned and scrapped by council under Rob Ford’s administration would have provided more transit access, serving more people, for less money.

Council endorsed a plan to bolster the amount of new transit in Scarborough with an extension of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT east from Kennedy Station to the University of Toronto’s Scarborough campus.

Staff initially said that line could be paid for from within existing funds set aside for the subway. But with only $3.56 billion available, the subway as currently costed already eats up nearly all of the funding.

“Scarborough needs a 24-stop transit network rather than one multi-billion dollar stop that continues to balloon in costs. The entire city needs a relief line,” said Councillor Josh Matlow, who has been critical of the Scarborough subway plan. “The public deserves to know whether the mayor and council are wasting tax dollars on their own political interests or wisely investing into the real priorities of transit riders. It’s time for the facts to come out and the evidence-based plan to finally move forward.”

In December, Tory and a majority of councillors again rejected a motion from Matlow to see a value-for-money comparison of the subway to the LRT alternative.

That kind of analysis has never been done.

A draft analysis done by the provincial transit agency Metrolinx and buried by the province, which the Star obtained through a different freedom of information request, concluded that the subway was “not a worthwhile use of money” when compared to the LRT.

The current $3.35 billion estimate was made at a time when very little of the subway’s design work had been completed. The last cost update saw the price for the subway increase by $1 billion.

A March staff report said that city staff planned to report back with the updated cost estimate in “late 2018.”

In mid-October, before the mayor’s briefing was finalized, the TTC told the Star the subway would be at 30 per cent design by “mid-2018.” When questioned about this later, the TTC said that because the work was being done in phases, the cost would not actually be available until “late 2018.”

It was unclear if that means before the election. City staff refused to answer that question.

Buried in a later staff report was the first indication the update wouldn’t actually be coming until 2019.

Because there is no committee or council meetings after July, city staff now say the next opportunity to report through the council process is in 2019.