Updated Scarborough subway costs won't be published until after 2018 election
Cost estimate expected to be ready in 2018 but public report planned for the first quarter of 2019.

Thestar.com
Jennifer Pagliaro
Nov. 22, 2017

Senior city officials will know the updated cost of the Scarborough subway in 2018.

Exactly when that estimate will be ready is still unclear. But the Star has confirmed the public won’t be told until the first quarter of 2019, when a staff report to council is expected -- well after the next municipal election.

“I don’t see why the government of the City of Toronto would sit on information for three quarters of the year and not make it available to Torontonians as they go to polls,” said Councillor Gord Perks, who has been critical of the subway plan.

With only very preliminary design done, the current estimate for a single-stop subway extension of the Bloor-Danforth line to the Scarborough Town Centre is $3.35 billion. That number comes with a very wide margin of error and does not include the costs necessary to finance a large infrastructure project.

The last time there was a cost update, the price of the subway increased by $1 billion.

As he announced his resignation Tuesday, outgoing TTC CEO Andy Byford said that if costs of the subway rise “way beyond” today’s estimate the project “will need to be revisited.”

The TTC earlier confirmed to the Star the subway will be at 30 per cent design by “mid-2018.”

But in email Wednesday, TTC spokesperson Brad Ross clarified that the work will happen in phases and that an actual cost estimate is not expected to be ready until “late 2018.”

Council was told in March that “city and TTC staff plan to report at the next key decision milestone for this project in late 2018” with a cost update, once the subway has advanced to 30 per cent design, according to a staff report.

But a change in that reporting date is buried in an attachment to a new, unrelated report from staff released on Tuesday about the mayor’s “SmartTrack” transit plan.

A letter from city manager Peter Wallace to the head of the provincial transit agency Metrolinx dated Nov. 20 outlines the city’s position on a regional transportation plan being drafted by the agency. At the end is a chart updating the status of the city’s priority transit projects.

The chart notes that the TTC is “currently advancing both tunnel and station design work from 10 per cent to 30 per cent” with “expected completion end of 2018.” It notes the “next milestone” is a report to council on the updated cost estimates in “Q1 2019.”

City spokesperson Wynna Brown told the Star that while an updated cost estimate is expected “Q3/Q4 2018” there is no council meeting until January 2019 “so the first opportunity to report out is Q1 2019.”

The last council meeting where city business can be dealt with next year is scheduled from July 23 to 25.

The nomination period for the election runs from May 1 to July 27 next year. Election day is Oct. 22.

Last month, council debated the schedule of meetings for 2018.

Though some councillors requested there be a meeting at the end of August in the election year, which is typical, others sided with the staff-recommended scheduling that ended all meetings in July.

“I don’t think we should be meeting in the month of August while we are at the same time campaigning,” said Councillor Glenn De Baeremaeker, who moved to have no meetings after the summer break.

Perks, at the time, objected, telling his colleagues: “We’re elected for a four-year term, not a three-and-a-half year term.”

Council voted 22 to 17 to end meetings in July. Mayor John Tory was absent for the vote.

The Star asked Tory’s office for comment on whether the mayor thought it was reasonable to not inform the public of the cost until after the election and if he would work to ensure that update was provided.

In a short statement, Tory’s spokesperson Don Peat wrote: “The timing of the release of that information will be up to city staff.”

Council still has to vote on whether to proceed with construction of the subway once the costs are updated.