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Climate adaptation plan - intensive 3D modeling

NRU
Oct. 11, 2017
By Daniel Taylor

Leading the way in municipal climate change modeling, Ajax is undertaking a new and innovative 3D modeling method, which will aggregate an unprecedented amount of climate data. This is the first step in the creation of the town's community climate adaptation plan.

Ajax staff is recommending that council approve an additional $35,000 to topup the recently announced $175,000 in funding from the Federation of Canadian Municipalities. An intensive 3D model will provide baseline data to inform the adaption plan, which will identify potential threats posed by climate change, propose mitigation projects and detail their implementation.

Ajax environmental sustainability coordinator Jade Schofield told NRU that municipalities need to know, in far more detail than is currently the case, which specific areas are at particular risk from future climate changes. For example, staff needs to understand which culverts are more likely to fail, where surface temperatures have risen the most, and which portions of the tree canopy are more susceptible to drought. While much of this data already exists, none of it has been compiled into one tool that can help planners and members of council understand how these issues relate and interact with each other.

"I haven't seen a model that takes into account all these areas. I have seen other municipalities use similar 3D modeling around specific issues... but to really put it into a climate adaptation lens, I haven't seen that as of yet. So I'm hoping we're the first out of the gate on that."

Located on Lake Ontario, Schofield explained that Ajax's mains concerns in terms of climate change impacts are due to flooding and erosion.

"We identified several key areas when it comes to risk for Ajax-flooding, impacts on the natural environment, and social and emergency response... But these are very broad and when it comes down to the project-level details on where we need to start to adapt to climate change... 3D modeling would enable us to get a more in-depth image of the town."

She described how 3D modeling would have enabled Ajax to have been better prepared for the ice storm of 2013. Moving forward, intensive 3D modelling will help Ajax prepare for future events.

"Most of us remember the 2013 Ice storm and the impact that had on our energy infrastructure, our natural infrastructure, on people's mobility and the economy. People don't see that in a climate change perspective but that's the type of thing we need to be protecting our community from in the future. It's down to good planning and good management in the community to do that."

University of Toronto physics assistant professor Debra Wunch, who conducts research measuring the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions in the GTA, spoke with NRU about the importance of collecting comprehensive climate data.

"More data collection and availability would definitely be extremely helpful in the GTA."

Wunch is currently leading a new project in which researchers ride a bike around the city with a methane detector jimmy-rigged to it.

Yesterday, general government committee recommended that council approve the staff report at its meeting October 16. Staff anticipate retaining a consultant in the near future to create the 3D model by the spring of 2018. The draft community climate adaptation plan is expected to be completed before 2020.