MPs on summer break will return to a different Parliament this fall

The Parliament MPs will return to this fall promises to be different with new political leaders and a new dynamic as the 2019 election begins to loom large over federal policies and politics.

Thestar.com
June 22, 2017
By Bruce Campion-Smith

Senators passed the Liberal government’s budget Thursday, ending a political stand-off that could have cut short the MPs’ summer break.

The back-and-forth budget battle - fought in recent days over whether the Senate had the political authority to amend the government’s budget - ended when Senators reluctantly backed down and approved it.

Thursday’s vote defused the deadlock for now though Senators used the opportunity to insist they have the constitutional right to amend any legislation “whatever its nature or source.”

Crisis averted, politicians are returning to their ridings. The Parliament they will return to this fall promises to be different with new political leaders and a new dynamic as the 2019 election begins to loom large over federal politics and policies.

By mid-September, the Liberals will be nearing the mid-point of their four-year mandate. Trudeau and his Liberal MPs will face off against opposition parties reenergized by leadership contests. The Conservatives now have Andrew Scheer at the helm. This fall, the New Democrats will select the leader to replace Thomas Mulcair.

On Wednesday, Scheer previewed a few of the themes he’ll be taking to Canadians this summer - accusations of reckless spending by the Liberals and the promise of “positive” Conservative policies.

“After just two years of Justin Trudeau, Canadians are already looking for a fresh alternative,” he told reporters on Parliament Hill.

“We’re almost at the halfway mark for this Liberal mandate and it’s pretty obvious the sunny skies here have clouded over,” he said, a jab at Trudeau’s “sunny ways” slogan.
It’s not as bad as that for the Liberals, according to David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data, who says that Trudeau and the government continue to enjoy good approval ratings among Canadians.

But Coletto notes that the Liberals have had the luxury of governing while facing a temporary leader on the Conservative side (Rona Ambrose) and a leader on his way on the New Democrats (Thomas Mulcair).

“So things start to get real now. That for them is probably going to be the real challenge,” he said in an interview.

On Thursday, Government House Leader Bardish Chagger touted the government’s track record this session, including the March budget, investments to combat gender-based violence, legislation to implement the Canada-European Union trade deal and just this week, legislation to overhaul national security services and oversight.

But other promises have slipped by the wayside. The promised reform of Canada’s electoral system has been abandoned. The government made improvements to access to information laws but ditched their campaign vow to make it apply to the offices of cabinet ministers and the prime minister.

The pledge to balance the books by 2019-20 has gone out the window with sizeable deficits now predicted for the foreseeable future.

The Liberals boast about being back on the world stage but a key promise of that foreign policy - a military peace mission - remains in limbo. That announcement is now expected this fall - more than a year after the government first sketched out its ambitions for the deployment.

“Mr. Trudeau has consistently failed to deliver on his promises,” Mulcair told reporters at a session-ending news conference this week.

“You could be forgiven for thinking that because they only got 40 per cent of the vote, the Liberals figure it’s okay if they only respect 40 per cent of their promises,” he said.

“I think Canadians are beginning to realize that they’ve been had,” he said.

The Liberals have their challenges on other fronts too. The post of official languages commissioner sits empty after a bungled attempt to fill the job with a former provincial Liberal cabinet minister. The stumble highlighted the government’s slow progress in filling other vacancies in federal posts, a list that has grown to include the RCMP commissioner, chief justice of the Supreme Court and information commissioner.

The legalization of marijuana for recreational use remains a work in progress with some provinces questioning whether they will be ready for the July, 2018 deadline.

The Liberals came into office pledging an ambitious agenda and in 2019, voters will be taking a hard look at what got done, Coletto said. “Come election time, that’s going to be the discussion. Have Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals lived up to the expectations?” he said.

For Conservatives, their goal this summer should be to “introduce” Scheer to Canadians and boost his profile as the new party leader while broadening the appeal of the party, Coletto said.

Coletto has emphasized the need for Conservatives to boost support among millennials, those born between 1980 and 2000 who will make up a key segment of the electorate in 2019.

“How do you make conservatism millennial-friendly becomes a really important question. You don’t have to win this demographic but they have to do better,” Coletto said.

For the NDP, battered in the 2015 election, the leadership contest is a chance to rejuvenate the party and redefine for voters “who they are as a party, what do they stand for,” Coletto said

Abacus polling shows that Canadians remain open to voting for the NDP but to win those votes, the third-place party needs to tell a “compelling story,” helped in part by the selection of a new leader, he said.

Whether the New Democrats succeed in their political rebuilding will have a big impact on the next election. If the NDP can win over Liberal votes and the Conservatives can rebuild their own support, that would spell trouble for Trudeau, Coletto said.

“It’s all about what happens on the left side of the spectrum, I think, as to whether the Tories can actually win, first of all, and two, whether Mr. Trudeau can get re-elected,” Coletto said.