Will Trump-style politics ‘Make Ontario Great Again?’
Automation is a bogeyman, globalization is the enemy, and global warming raises the political temperature.

thestar.com
By MARTIN REGG COHN
April 3, 2017

Here’s a triumphal campaign slogan for the next provincial election:

“Make Ontario Great Again!”

Donald Trump did it with “Make America Great Again.” Now the impulse is creeping into Ontario politics, finding an echo in PC Leader Patrick Brown.

Our premier-in-waiting hasn’t adopted the slogan, but he’s imitating it. He hearkens back to the manufacturing heartland that once was.

Bear in mind that Brown doesn’t buy into the bigotry of the Trump campaign. Instead, he is clever enough to embrace Canada’s new multiculturalism, while still clinging to the old economy.

Brown understands that the farsighted politician of today looks backwards in time. While looking voters in the eye.

It’s only natural for people to fear the change of the future (full disclosure - oh never mind, full confession: I’m among them). Nostalgia for the great old days - a past that never quite was - has eternal appeal.

By any measure, Ontario’s strong recovery has pushed it to the top of the national economic sweepstakes. But personal uncertainty has never been higher.

Globalization and automation cause endless upheavals that cannot be denied, nor minimized, no matter how much one closes one’s eyes to the causes and consequences. Ignoring these competitive pressures would lead us into an economic dead end.

Resistance isn’t futile, it’s political - as prescribed by protectionists of both the left and right. We see eternal opposition to change, be it environmental (renewable energy and global warming) or economic (innovation and disruption).

Trump’s uplifting sloganeering helped him win power, but his subsequent actions have cast America on a downward path. By dismantling pollution controls on the burning of dirty coal, he fulfilled a pledge to return jobless miners to the steady jobs they long ago lost - except it won’t work out that way.

Renewable energy has become more cost-competitive, while automation - strip mining - in coal country has eliminated many of the jobs that Trump voters had hoped to reclaim. Meanwhile, China is rushing into the renewable energy vacuum left by the Americans, gaining a competitive advantage in the sector.

Against that backdrop, Ontario’s experiment with green energy, while more costly than it needed to be, will still pay dividends. The decision to phase out coal-fired power plants in Ontario pushed up power bills faster than anyone bargained for, but it was fully supported by voters (and all parties) at the time.

With all provinces now mandated by Ottawa to put a price on carbon, the elimination of dirty coal has given Ontario a massive head start. This year’s decision to finally join other jurisdictions in lowering the overall cap for greenhouse gas emissions will position the province for the green economy of the future.

It’s worth noting that Ontario’s first auction for 2017 carbon “allowances” (traded by companies in the cap and trade system) was sold out. The results, announced Monday, showed that the polluter pay principle raised an impressive $472 million, while overall emissions are lowered.

The reaction from the opposition PCs could have come directly from Trump’s talking points. Brown assailed the Liberal government for linking up with Quebec, California and other jurisdictions to stabilize and maximize the cap and trade market. Worse, he has recklessly promised that as premier he’d dismantle the complex system - doubtless faster than Trump has decimated the Environmental Protection Agency.

No matter how much politicians pretend they can go back in time, or preserve the present for all time, economies - and environments - don’t stand still. Canadians had a taste of that debate during the free trade election of 1988, when the Liberals and New Democrats opposed economic integration while the Tories of Brian Mulroney argued for stronger trade ties.

Now, the Trump administration is trying to renegotiate NAFTA to their own benefit - perhaps it wasn’t such a bad deal for us - while New York State legislators are flirting with a Buy America plan to penalize Ontario producers. Beware trade wars that hurt both sides.

And be careful what you wish for. Protectionists of the right and left, who have railed against free trade all these years, will find the lucrative American market far less profitable when we’re frozen out.

The new economy is a hard sell in tough times. Automation is a bogeyman and globalization is the enemy. Global warming raises the political temperature, and green energy makes people see red. Precarious work is scary.

Trump wants to bring back coal that’s best left in the ground, while Brown wants to wind down cap and trade before it even gets off the ground. Slogans that try to revive the past only get you so far, for the future cannot be forestalled forever.

The trouble with “Make Ontario Great Again” (or any variant from the Trump playbook) is that it almost certainly won't.