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Council agree to move ahead with the Scarborough subway. So what now?

A day after council advanced plans for a subway in Scarborough, the Star looks at what it means and what happens next.

Thestar.com
March 29, 2017
By Jennifer Pagliaro

As costs of a one-stop subway extension in Scarborough continue to rise, council voted Tuesday against knowing if that project represents good value for money.

So what happens now?

The Star breaks down the vote and explains what happens next:

Who voted to move ahead with a subway plan?

The item passed in a 28 to 18 vote in favour of moving forward with the subway plan, what Tory called a “solid majority.”

Those opposed include the left-leaning caucus and centrist Councillor Josh Matlow (Ward 22 St. Paul’s), who has been a vocal advocate for a 24-stop LRT network plan.

Only three of Tory’s executive members broke ranks. That included Councillor Jaye Robinson (Ward 25 Don Valley West), who is one of Tory’s key allies. She did not speak during Tuesday’s debate, but told the Star Wednesday she had consistently voted in favour of the LRT in 2013.

“When I really looked into it I felt like I should remain consistent yesterday,” she said, noting capacity on the Yonge subway line and a downtown relief line are priority issues for her residents.

Newest executive member Councillor Jon Burnside (Ward 26 Don Valley West) voted in favour of a failed motion from Matlow to bring forward a side-by-side comparison of the subway with the previously-approved, seven-stop LRT - a study that has never been undertaken.

Will they start digging a tunnel for the subway extension now?

No. Staff were specifically directed to advance design work of the one-stop extension to 30 per cent design and to bring back an updated cost estimate. So, council will have to vote again on whether to proceed with the project and secure contractors to build it at that time. City staff have estimated that information will be brought forward in “late 2018” which may mean next term.

City staff say construction is not set to start until 2020 and would finish, at the earliest, in the second quarter of 2026.

Will it cost more than $3.35 billion?

That’s very likely. An earlier Star analysis found the subway may already be more expensive than the available $3.56 billion in funding. At this point, little design work for a subway has been completed, meaning the current cost estimate could be off by as much as 50 per cent — putting costs as high as $5 billion.

Is the seven-stop LRT alternative dead?

With the politics of transit planning, it’s difficult to be certain. Council rejected a request to see a value-for-money comparison on Tuesday. But, council must vote on Scarborough transit again.

Staff said Tuesday that funding from all three levels of government is available for Scarborough transit generally, not specifically for a subway, as some on council claimed.

City Manager Peter Wallace also confirmed that the master agreement with the province to cover 100 per cent of the capital costs for an LRT remains signed.

And he dumped cold water on a controversial TTC briefing note that stated the cost estimate of the LRT had increased to be as much as that of the subway.

“The TTC did do a very quick briefing note to indicate that, but frankly those costs are not known,” Wallace said Tuesday.

He noted “significant work” would be required to reconsider the LRT, which he said could be done in a minimum six months.

What happened to the Eglinton East LRT?

The 17-stop LRT line proposed to be part of a new network in Scarborough has broad support on council, but lacks funding. Council supported a motion from Councillor Paul Ainslie (Ward 43 Scarborough East) on Tuesday to tie the LRT to the subway as one “network” but not as one “project.” Though certainly symbolic, what real effect that will have on ensuring the LRT is not left behind as the subway plan advances is unclear. Council also directed staff to return with a funding plan for the LRT in the second quarter of 2018.

Didn’t the federal government just promise a bunch more money?

Yes, but it’s unclear what that means for Toronto yet. City staff have estimated that Ontario's allocation of the newly-announced federal funding for public transit is $8.5 billion. Of that, the mayor's office has said they expect Toronto to receive $5 billion. On Tuesday, staff provided a range of $4.5 billion to $5 billion but stressed that is not yet confirmed nor are commitments from the province ahead of a 2017 budget announcement. The Star earlier confirmed that the $660 million committed by the federal government for the subway, will come from that same pool of money.