Growth plan revisited: unworkable goals

NRU
March 15, 2017
By Andrew Cohrs

Ahead head of the provincial release of a revised Growth Plan, concerns remain that the proposed changes are not workable.

Region-wide, planners contend the rationale for increased growth and density targets is flawed and that the proposed increases are not achievable for many municipalities throughout the Greater Golden Horseshoe.

Former Waterloo chief planner Kevin Eby helped write the original 2006 Growth Plan. He told NRU that the data used to gauge levels of intensification reflected greenfield areas being caught inside built boundaries as the province had based its analysis on data collected before municipalities had fully conformed to the Growth Plan policies. As a result, the province cannot accurately measure the success of the Growth Plan’s polices and targets let alone justify an increase in them.

“In [the province’s] 2014 monitoring report, the province concluded that the majority of municipalities had met the intensification target. This became the basis for making it higher. Unfortunately, much of the 2006 to 2010 data used to draw this conclusion reflected the building out of the pockets of greenfield areas that were caught inside the built boundary rather than real intensification. Data from later years show a considerable drop in the intensification rate in some municipalities.”

Peel Region integrated planning director Arvin Prasad agrees. He told NRU that development on the fringes of cities in Peel was included within the built boundary and contributed to a higher intensification percentage in the years after the Growth Plan was enacted. Once those sites had been developed, Peel, like many other municipalities in the GTA, saw a drop in its intensification rate. Between 2006 and 2016, the region just barely achieved 40 per cent intensification. Prasad noted that the proposed increase in the targets would be even more challenging in future.

York Region chief planner Valerie Shuttleworth told NRU that the region had been working on increasing density long before the Growth Plan.

The region had identified urban centres and corridors for intensification as early as 1994 and York Region has achieved higher intensification rates and densities than most GTA municipalities. But Shuttleworth says York still cannot achieve the proposed targets. When combined, a proposed greenfield density target of 80 people and jobs per ha, a 60 per cent intensification target and minimum densities around major transit stations-whether 200, 160 or 150 residents and jobs per ha-are not possible.

“The three [proposed targets] in combination, in the York Region context- and given our 2041 population forecast - are unworkable. It just doesn’t work. So I would hope that [our concern] would be enough to have [the province] look at it.”

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Similarly, Durham Region planning and economic development commissioner Brian Bridgeman told NRU that the proposed targets could present significant challenges.

“The types of densities that you would need to achieve in the outer limits of the greenfield [areas] would be similar to the densities that exist now in downtown Oshawa ... Most of the greenfield [area] has been planned based on 50 residents and jobs per hectare.”

Nevertheless, there remains considerable support throughout the region for the Growth Plan. Both Shuttleworth and Prasad are vocal supporters of the Growth Plan’s intent and direction.

Similarly, Eby says that the Growth Plan is a necessary policy document and suggests the province consider a phased approach to increasing density.

“I think the Growth Plan is doing the right thing ... but don’t pretend that all that has happened in the past 10 years is reflective of the Growth Plan, because it’s not.

It wasn’t always implemented correctly and hasn’t had time to fully work into the system yet. If they gave it another five years, you would likely have legitimate data to determine whether or not the Growth Plan is working ... If the province is going to increase the targets, at a minimum, I think [it needs] to provide for a phase-in period that allows municipalities time to complete the work necessary to implement the changes properly, and provides additional time for monitoring to make sure the proposed targets are correct before they fully come into effect,” said Eby.

Provincial representative Geoffroi Bouchard confirmed that a revised Growth Plan is expected to be enacted in early 2017.