Poll suggests Canadians more optimistic about the economy

Canadians remain uneasy about the nation’s overall economic prospects even as they are optimistic about their own personal fortunes, a new survey suggests.

Thestar.com
Feb. 15, 2017
By Robert Benzie

Canadians remain uneasy about the nation’s overall economic prospects even as they are more optimistic about their own personal fortunes, a new survey suggests.

Pollara Strategic Insights’ 22nd annual outlook poll reveals 57 per cent believe the country is in recession.

But that is lower than the 76 per cent that felt that way in last year’s survey.

“There’s what economists call a recession and there’s what people feel,” Pollara’s executive vice-president, Craig Worden, said Tuesday.

“We’ve seen this now for nine years in a row that people have said we’re in recession,” said Worden, pointing out Canada emerged from the recession sparked by the 2009 global financial crisis years ago.

“That just ... speaks to how long it takes ... to get out of the doldrums and into something more sunny and positive,” he said.

Pollara conducted an online poll of 1,501 Canadians from Jan. 25 to 30 with results considered accurate to within 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Of those surveyed, 575 were from Ontario.

Worden noted that while Canadians have a negative feeling about the nation’s economy, they are increasingly positive about their personal finances.

About two-thirds - 65 per cent - felt at least one positive emotion about their own economic situation, with 39 per cent “optimistic,” 36 per cent “calm,” 34 per cent “confident,” 19 per cent “happy,” 18 per cent “proud,” 9 per cent “excited,” and 8 per cent “inspired.”

In contrast, 48 per cent felt “at least one negative emotion about their financial outlook, with 35 per cent “worried,” 17 per cent “resigned,” 15 per cent “upset,” 14 per cent “pessimistic,” 13 per cent “sad,” 9 per cent “ashamed,” and 6 per cent “bored.”

“The increase isn’t that people see us in a period of strong growth, it’s entirely an increase of people - 19 per cent more Canadians - now seeing us in a period of moderate growth,” said Worden.

“Nobody’s throwing confetti in the air. Everybody is sort of cautiously optimistic,” the pollster said.

“Overall, on every score, everybody is more positive than they were last year - even where the results are negative.”

That’s an intriguing finding for Canada since 2016 saw the divisive election of U.S. President Donald Trump and turmoil sparked by the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union.

“We’ve just come out of a year of upheaval and uncertainty with Brexit and the Trump election . . . and yet everybody is more positive now than they were last year,” he said, referring to Pollara’s January 2016 poll.

That said, Worden warned it could be challenging for any Canadian political leader to cash in electorally on the improving mood of the country.

“It is hard for politicians to get the credit for a good economy, but they always get the stick for a bad economy - that’s the conundrum that they’re always in.”