Target Mismatch

York Region analyzes proposed amendments

NRU
Sept. 14, 2016
By Geordie Gordon

While supportive of the provincial direction for increased intensification and densities, York Region staff says that the province needs to revise the approach being contemplated with proposed amendments to the Growth Plan. The province should move away from prescriptive numbers in the Growth Plan and instead focus on policy directions.

York Region chief planner Valerie Shuttleworth told NRU that the proposed greenfield density and intensification targets, as well as the proposed densities for major transit stops don’t all work together.

“When you try to fi t all of that together in the context of our 2041 population forecast, it’s not workable,” she said. “Our message [to the province] is that it’s not workable in the York Region context ... one size does not fit all. We need some flexibility to accommodate our local [and] regional context.”

Shuttleworth says that staff would like to see the province move away from “planning by numbers,” and instead set more policy direction.

“It’s not a mathematical exercise, every regional municipality, local municipality, is unique and different. [The province should] set the over-arching targets and goals, and let us do our work.”

According to the staff report, the proposed targets do not work within the context of the Growth Plan population forecasts. Staff analysis has shown that to achieve both targets, the population would need to be at least 2.2 million by 2041, whereas a population of 1.79 million is forecast. Staff notes that the rate of growth required to achieve that higher population is beyond historic rates and is not recommending that those forecasts be altered.

Shuttleworth says that York Region is well positioned to achieve greater than the current 40 per cent intensifi cation, with its investments in transit and approved secondary plans for the urban growth centres. However, implementation of the proposed amendments would result in “perverse consequences” to the urban structure in the region.

“We’re well positioned to accommodate a higher than 40 per cent intensification target, but it’s this interplay of these increased targets ... it a math exercise that doesn’t work,” she said, “We end up with huge densities out in the designated greenfield areas .. 70-plus per cent [of which] is already built. So the vacant lands have to be built at [around] 180 residents and jobs, which is approaching urban growth centre areas, out in the designated greenfield areas. It’s not good planning, it’s planning by numbers and the numbers don’t work.”

The region won’t be recommending different number to the province, Shuttleworth said, because the “right” numbers are going to depend on the region, but going to 60 per cent intensification and 80 people and jobs per hectare in greenfield areas is perhaps raising the bar too high, too soon.

The staff report will be considered at the committee of the whole meeting September 15. Staff is expected to report to council in October with final recommendations, which will also incorporate feedback from the region’s local municipalities.