A guide to byelections

torontosun.com
Aug. 27, 2016
By Antonella Artuso

Byelections are on opportunity to read the political tea leaves.

Depending on the results, a byelection can be viewed as a safe way to send a message to a sitting government, the beginning of a new political dynasty, the end or the start of a new leader’s rise to power.

They can hint at dark dissatisfaction and highlight bright new talent.

Rash promises are made to lure voters away, and whole subway and highway routes have been crafted around the desperate wish to hold onto a riding.

Although they rarely change governments - and the Scarborough-Rouge River vote on Thursday certainly won’t – insiders pay a lot of attention to byelections.

Some famous and infamous Ontario byelections:

Victoria-Haliburton (1994): Tory candidate Chris Hodgson, running under the leadership of PC Mike Harris, defeated a Liberal candidate in what was one of the first strong signals that the third-place party was on the road to a major upset in 1995.

Vaughan-King-Aurora (2001): Liberal Greg Sorbara won the previously Tory riding decisively, suggesting that the PC stranglehold on the vote-rich 905 area was ending. And it was.

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock (2009): Liberal Rick Johnson beat out then PC Leader John Tory, killing his provincial career but starting him on the road to the Toronto Mayor’s office.

Kitchener-Waterloo (2012): The Liberal government sparked this byelection, which would have given it a majority, by the appointment of sitting Tory MPP Elizabeth Witmer to head up the WSIB. Libs and Tories desperately wanted this one. Byelection voters hated being taken for granted. They sent NDP Catherine Fife to Queen’s Park instead.

Sudbury (2015): Liberal Glenn Thibeault emerged victorious from one of the messiest Ontario byelections. Switched loyalties, spurned candidates, secretly taped conversations, OPP charges laid and dropped... and still the Liberals won. Might need a fortune teller to read the tea leaves on this one, but it pointed to the personal popularity of Thibeault and the continuing strength of the Liberals in urban centres.

Scarborough-Rouge River (2016): PC Leader Patrick Brown has an opportunity to show his party that he can win a 416 seat. Premier Kathleen Wynne can show her party that Liberals still rule Toronto. The loser’s going to have some explaining to do.