Ontario Tories hold steady lead in latest poll
A new public opinion poll suggests this may be Ontario’s summer of discontent with Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals.

TheStar.com
Aug. 19, 2016
Robert Benzie

A new public opinion poll suggests this may be Ontario’s summer of discontent with Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals.

The Forum Research survey conducted Monday found Patrick Brown’s Progressive Conservatives holding steady with 41 per cent to 28 per cent for the Liberals, 23 per cent for Andrea Horwath’s resurgent New Democrats, and 6 per cent for the Green Party helmed by Mike Schreiner.

That’s a setback for the premier’s party from the July 12 poll that had the Tories at 42 per cent, the Liberals at 35 per cent, the NDP at 17 per cent, and the Greens at 5 per cent.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff cautioned Thursday against reading too much into the August results with the next provincial election almost two years away.

“This is the deadest part of summer. I think everyone is just sort of floating right now. People aren’t paying attention. People are on vacation,” said Bozinoff.

“But . . . it does show the continuing strength of the Tories,” he said, noting Brown’s party has topped the monthly tracking poll since last August.

“The Liberals are going to have to work at it — I don’t think it’s going to bounce back on its own for the Liberals to take a lead.”

Using interactive voice-response telephone calls, Forum surveyed 1,097 Ontarians on Monday with results considered accurate to within three percentage points 19 times out of 20.

While the New Democrats are up from last month’s poll, Bozinoff suggested the provincial party may still be suffering from the federal NDP’s problems in the wake of the October election.

New Democrats dumped Thomas Mulcair as federal leader in April and the nascent race to succeed him has generated little interest.

“The NDP, in my mind, are sort of in a no man’s land right now. Both federally and provincially they were out-NDP-ed by the Liberals,” he said, referring to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s election win last fall and Wynne’s victory in June 2013.

Still, Horwath continues to reign as the most popular of the three major party leaders.

The New Democrat chief enjoyed a 34 per cent approval rating compared to 28 per cent disapproval and 38 per cent don’t know.

Brown was at 26 per cent approval, 25 per cent disapproval, with 49 per cent don’t know.

Wynne languished behind with 16 per cent approval, 72 per cent disapproval, and 11 per cent don’t know.

Asked which leader would make the best premier, 14 per cent of respondents gave the nod to Wynne.

Brown received 25 per cent support to 17 per cent for Horwath while 27 per cent of those polled said “none of these” and 17 per cent didn’t know.

Where appropriate, results of the survey have been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data.

Forum houses its complete results in the data library of the University of Toronto’s political science department.