High-speed rail corridor - unlocking economic potential

NRU
May 4, 2016
By Geordie Gordon

Driving the business case for a high-speed rail link between Toronto and Windsor is potential ridership numbers. While contingent on population and employment growth, ridership is also spurred by the economic growth that could occur by linking municipalities with complementary economies, in particular Toronto and Kitchener-Waterloo.
The province appointed former federal transportation minister David Collenette Special Advisor for High Speed Rail last October, to assist in bringing high-speed rail to the Toronto-Windsor corridor. In November it launched the environmental assessment and awarded Steer Davies Gleave the contract to develop a preliminary business case for the proposed rail link.

WSP/MMM Group rail and transit division vice president Paul Nimigon told NRU that the work being done is likely a refinement of the 2011 study, with which he was involved. Commissioned by the federal, Quebec and Ontario governments, that study examined the feasibility of a Quebec City to Windsor high-speed rail corridor.

“It’s between Toronto and Windsor, so it’s looking at a section of that [2011 study], which makes sense, in the sense of let’s get the numbers up to date again, let’s look at the ridership, let’s look at the feasibility of it,” he said.

Nimigon said that the first thing to look at is the ridership, and what the demand is to drive the business case for the link. Former Ontario public infrastructure renewal minister and Global Public Affairs vice-chair David Caplan told NRU that with Windsor being primarily focused on heavy industry, and being export-oriented, there is less of a case to be made for extending a commuter rail link there.

“To my knowledge, no one has ever come up with a feasibility study [that shows] that there’s going to be significant enough ridership that it would make economic sense [to link to Windsor],” he said.

But a Toronto to Kitchener-Waterloo connection makes a lot more sense, connecting the high-tech centre that it Kitchener-Waterloo with the provincial capital that is Toronto.

Caplan said that the critical question is whether there is enough two-way traffic to make the link worthwhile. A high-speed rail link that would allow travel between downtown Toronto and Kitchener-Waterloo in 30 to 40 minutes is an attractive option.

In coming up with ridership projections Caplan said the current study will be considering the population forecasts in the next 10, 20 and 50 years, the employment base and where it’s heading, and the types of industry the region is seeking to attract.

Caplan noted that one of the factors working against the link is that growth in the Kitchener-Waterloo region is constrained by a water system that is based on groundwater. To make a link economically feasible the government would need to consider drawing water from Lake Erie or Lake Ontario to open up development potential and establish a larger ridership base.

Nimigon said that for the rail corridor to be truly high speed, and not just higher speed, it needs to be separated. That means there would have to be property acquisitions.

“That’s a big component, because you have to put it on a separate right-of-way if you want to get the 320 km per hour…You need the separate right-of-way, secured at-grade crossings,” he said.

Nimigon emphasized the need for safety along the corridor, which includes fencing all along the route to prevent anything from getting onto the tracks.

One of the challenges that Nimigon highlighted is bringing the corridor into already built-up areas, such as those around Toronto Pearson International Airport. He says it’s not impossible, but becomes challenging.

“When you get into Toronto and try to have [the corridor] come to somewhere in the proximity of downtown and potentially stop at the airport, getting out of Toronto on a new rail alignment, that’s going to be a real challenge,” he said.

Caplan observed that there could be some other challenges with the location of the corridor, such as crossing the Niagara Escarpment at some point. But he says a route could be planned that would minimize the need for tunneling.

But the advantages would be significant, says Nimigon, as it would give commuters another option for travelling to where they need to go. He said the high-speed rail would complement the existing regional transit infrastructure because it would provide a different function while still reducing commute times.

“High-speed [rail] covers greater distance more quickly [than] the local Metrolinx system, [which] fits with the GTHA and hinterland around there with many stops and bringing commuters in and out of the city. High speed has a little bit of a different function, it’s more location-to-location over a greater distance. ” Nimigon said.

Speaking to NRU in March, Ontario transportation minister Steven Del Duca said that ministry staff and Collenette have been working on the business case for the rail link as well as other elements of the environmental assessment. At the time, Del Duca had not yet had a briefing from Collenette.

“My mandate letter from the premier included the responsibility to advance the environmental assessment, and hopefully in the next number of weeks or couple of months we’ll have more information about where things stand,” he said.

He said that in addition to providing a connection to the Kitchener-Waterloo high-tech corridor, the corridor has the ability to unlock potentially significant economic development opportunities in southwestern Ontario.

Del Duca noted that the environmental assessment is expected to take four to six years to complete.

According to the provincial website, the initial deadline for Stear Davies Gleave to report back is April or May of this year, although the contract does allow for extensions to November.

Collenette was unavailable for comment.