New Toronto ward map adds wards downtown, but could create council turf wars
Consultants say proposed ward boundaries would create effective representation and even out ward population sizes.

thestar.com
May 16, 2016
By Jennifer Pagliaro

A new map for Toronto shifts traditional boundaries and would create three new seats on council if approved next month.

How to change those ward boundaries - what could create some future political strife - will be up to the current 44 incumbent councillors plus Mayor John Tory to decide in June.

Consultants hired by the city to redraw the lines have recommended an increase from 44 to 47 wards, a map that leaves only six of the current wards exactly as before.

“Toronto’s current ward structure, developed approximately 15 years ago, has become unbalanced,” the consultants’ report reads, arguing the recommended option allows each vote to be better represented on council by resizing the wards based on population while factoring in historic boundaries and other considerations.

Here’s how the new map would change representation on council:

Turf wars: Three wards west of the downtown core would be redrawn as just two wards, which could pit incumbent Councillor Ana Bailao against Cesar Palacio in the new Ward 16. Three downtown wards are split into six, leaving open races in areas typically supportive of NDP or Liberal candidates along the waterfront and elsewhere. A new ward will be created between Willowdale’s wards 23 and 24, where incumbent Councillors John Filion and David Shiner would have to stake a claim where their support is greatest.

Effective representation: Consultants say the 47-ward option recommended best achieves voter parity with average ward sizes of 61,000 people and populations ranging from 51,850 people to 70,150 people. With the current 44-ward system, populations are expected to vary from 44,265 people to 129,992 people in 2026, which leaves the city open to challenges under the City of Toronto Act for unfair representation on council.

Neighbourhood shuffle: After presenting a slate of five options for new ward boundaries, the consultants have since tweaked their suggested map, they say, to take ward history, physical boundaries and other concerns into consideration. But that wasn’t always accomplished. Some long-standing neighbourhoods have been divided by the proposed borders, including cutting Regent Park in half along Dundas St. There are other interesting shifts. Councillor Mary Fragedakis’ Ward 29 (Toronto-Danforth), currently covering the north side of Danforth Ave. within the curve of the Don Valley Parkway would be expanded west to include all of Rosedale.

Urban versus suburban influence: Under the new plan, the number of seats within the borders of the former municipalities of Toronto and East York would increase to 14. The consultants say those changes are reflective of major growth in the city centre - what is expected to continue at a faster pace than in the suburbs. But that shift is unlikely to change day-to-day power dynamics on council, except in the case of extremely close votes. Council could choose to remake community councils (there are currently four representing the six former municipalities), but staff say that decision will come after new boundaries are approved.

Calling all MPPs & MPs: Some have questioned why there is no proposal for new ward boundaries to align with the current 25 federal ridings, which could then be split in two to create 50 wards. But the consultants argued that still won’t create voter parity with variances in ward populations exceeding the consultants’ set target of 15 per cent.

A ward by any other name: No matter what, voters may expect to be confused about where they live come election time, with several wards changing the numbers assigned to them. By incorporating new neighbourhoods, some will likely also need all new names. Those surveyed by the consultants gave differing opinions, including breaking versus not breaking from federal and provincial riding names, and using neighbourhood names versus coming up with unique names.