Liberals still well received by voters, new Forum poll shows
A Forum Research poll found 48 per cent of Canadians think the country is moving in “the right direction” compared to just one quarter who took that position last summer.

thestar.com
May 17, 2016
By Michael Robinson

Justin Trudeau’s political honeymoon is far from over, according to the results of a new poll.

Conducted just days after the six month anniversary of the new Liberal government, the national survey by Forum Research Inc. found 48 per cent of Canadians think the country is moving in “the right direction” compared to just one quarter who took that position last summer.

Meanwhile, 37 per cent, think the country is moving in the wrong direction and 12 per cent believe the country is moving in neither the right nor wrong direction.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff noted the results show the government is still in voters’ good books, long after the traditional “grace period” would be over.

“The Liberals started off strong, stayed strong and are actually getting strong,” he said.

Yet Nelson Wiseman, a professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said the broad support is indeed “a function of the honeymoon effect” following the Liberals’ rise to power last fall.

“I don’t think there is any surprise in these numbers, or that they reveal anything more than the popularity of the liberals in the context of them not yet having to make any tough decisions,” he said.

Voters are just happy to see the country take off in a different direction, particularly “away from that of Stephen Harper,” he said.

And while there is no set timetable for political honeymoons, the duration largely depends on “when something happens and how it plays out,” citing recent media coverage of Trudeau’s wife, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, as one such example.

The former TV presenter told a Quebec City newspaper last week that she needed more than one assistant to help manage the high number of requests she receives to appear at public events. The plea sparked criticism from opposition parties and turned into a debate on social media.

“This hasn’t helped their image but it hasn’t hurt them yet either,” said Wiseman.

The poll, conducted on May 10 and 11, showed 46 per cent of Canadians said the country is better off now than it was a year ago. Thiscompares to just 20 per cent who said the same in January 2015.

Further, one half of Canadian voters gave the new Liberal government a positive rating. Almost one fifth, or 19 per cent, rated it as “excellent.”

Bozinoff cited the Liberals’ track record of delivering on campaign promises - such as acceptance of refugees as well as the commitment to marijuana legalization - as moves that helped keep them popular among voters.

“The previous (Harper) government was non-interventionist, it was as if they were closed for business, whereas this government is getting involved and people like that,” he said. “It’s like they actually care about public opinion between elections and it’s startling.”

Regionally, 53 per cent of Quebecers polled believed they thought the country was on the right track. The same percentage of Albertans said the country was heading in the wrong direction; a finding Bozinoff said was “understandable because of the economic situation with oil prices right now.”

The survey of 1,517 randomly selected Canadian adults was conducted by interactive voice response. The results are considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Some data have been statistically weighted by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population as reflected in census data. Poll results are housed in the data library of the University of Toronto’s political science department.