The undoing of Mayor John Tory’s transit promises

With a "surface subway" dramatically scaled back, a questionable suburban subway stop and data proving a relief line subway is needed for real relief, Tory’s transit plan is no longer as advertised.

Thestar.com
March 8, 2016
By Jennifer Pagliaro

For five months leading up to his election as mayor, John Tory pledged to build a 53-kilometre “surface subway” with 15 brand new stops.

SmartTrack, as he called it, would run almost entirely - 90 per cent - on “existing” GO tracks and make several connections with existing TTC or GO stations. Making it the principal plank in his platform, SmartTrack was printed in white and green on campaign signs hammered into lawns across the city in 2014. Tory said it could be done in seven years for $8 billion.

Sixteen months after he was voted into office, Tory’s hand-picked executive committee is now poised to approve a plan that would see a drastically scaled-down version of that vision when they meet Wednesday.

SmartTrack, as outlined by staff, would now only add to the existing GO Transit expansion efforts that have long been underway at an unknown cost to the city, with just four to eight additional stations. It also scraps heavy rail tracks proposed along Eglinton Ave. West and replaces them with light rail.

“From this report, you conclude that the only thing left of SmartTrack is the name,” said Councillor Gord Perks. “I think we're at the point where we're only going to get good transit if we stop organizing all of our transit planning to make SmartTrack look good.”

Executive members will also be asked to endorse a new direction for transit in Scarborough that includes a revised one-stop subway extension, instead of the three stops Tory said were immediately needed, and a relief line subway Tory claimed was not.

“The worst thing you can have is somebody that’s absolutely set in their way, everything’s carved in stone, everything’s polarized, it’s my way or the highway,” Tory said in an interview. “I’m trying to do what I think is best for the city with the available money in the fastest period of time possible and that involves some changes to what I said I was going to do.”

On SmartTrack, Tory insisted: “It is going to be delivered much as was described.”

In total, he said, the planned new network includes more transit lines than he originally promised to build - all of which have been proposed before and have now been resurrected by staff.

“I’d be happy to run for re-election on that assuming that we’re some distance along by the time we get to 2018,” Tory said.

Tory softened his pitch on SmartTrack almost immediately after the election, in December 2014, calling his vision an “adaptation” of the province’s ongoing plans for increased service and electrification known as Regional Express Rail.

Then this January, staff brought another blow to Tory’s plan, recommending against a costly and technically challenging heavy rail spur along Eglinton Ave. West that the mayor insisted during his campaign was workable.

The new staff report before executive says that in order to accommodate Tory’s original promise for SmartTrack - a “separate and parallel” service - an additional two tracks would have been needed for the entire length of the existing GO corridor. And in order to squeeze in those tracks, “a large number” of houses and also residential highrise buildings would have needed to be torn down.

The campaign plan would also have required two new platforms at the already overloaded Union Station, city staff said.

All that in seven years and for $8 billion? Not possible.

“The planning, design and construction of this additional infrastructure would take many years and would extend beyond the proposed implementation timeline for SmartTrack,” staff wrote. “The likely costs of this additional rail infrastructure would be prohibitive.”

Earlier, the province’s transit agency Metrolinx came to the same conclusion.

The Star’s Tess Kalinowski reported that Metrolinx CEO Bruce McCuaig told city manager Peter Wallace in October that SmartTrack as proposed was “unaffordable and unworkable.”

Since then, the city and Metrolinx have been co-ordinating on how to fit SmartTrack into the province’s existing expansion plans.

Several unknowns remain, including fares and frequency of trains, both of which will have a big impact on the number of people willing to ride, staff wrote.

Councillor Joe Mihevc, who backed Olivia Chow during the campaign, said candidates should not be making promises like Tory’s, but credited him with being willing to change direction.

“The key thing that is important is that we get the right plan and spend the right money on the right projects,” he said.

Here is how Tory’s plans have changed and what is still undecided:

SmartTrack

Tory’s promise: A new, all-day heavy rail service stretching 53 kilometres with 22 new stops with service every 15 minutes or better at the same cost as a TTC fare to be completed in seven years (2021) at a cost of $8 billion.

The reality: Between four and eight additional stops as part of the ongoing GO Transit expansion plan, with the fare, frequency of trains and total cost still unknown

What now?: How the city will fund its share of SmartTrack is a big unknown. The total cost has not yet been calculated with recent alterations to the plan.

The federal Liberal government has committed $2.6 billion on the basis that it’s a one-third share of the earlier $8 billion price tag. The province’s “share” has been pitched as their ongoing infrastructure work for Regional Express Rail, some $13.5 billion.

During the campaign, Tory promised not to raise taxes to pay for the line, saying billions could found using tax increment financing - essentially borrow money to build infrastructure against future development.

City staff have not yet officially commented on whether the city can actually raise the money it needs through this method alone, but Tory recently proposed an annual property tax increase of 0.5 per cent starting in 2017 to pay, in part, for transit.

Scarborough subway extension

The promise: A three-stop Scarborough subway from Kennedy station to Sheppard Ave. at a cost of $3.56 billion.

The reality: A one-stop subway and 17-stop LRT along Eglinton Ave. East, said to be possible for the same cost.

What now?: Faced with self-styled subway champion Rob Ford as his main competitor in the 2014 mayoral election and needing to secure support from Scarborough voters, Tory backed a controversial plan for a three-stop subway to replace the aging Scarborough RT.

“Get started immediately,” his platform promised. “No more delays.”

Council originally flipped to support a three-stop subway under Ford’s leadership in 2013, scraping plans for a seven-stop LRT that was fully funded by the province. In the process, some $75 million in taxpayer money was wasted on planning work already completed.

Tory claimed during the campaign that SmartTrack and the Scarborough subway could be built side-by-side, even though they were just a few kilometres apart in some places. Transit experts including TTC CEO Andy Byford warned the two lines might steal each other’s riders.

After he was elected, Tory continued to argue the two lines served different riders even as he and staff worked behind-the-scenes to come up with a better plan. The new subway/LRT combination was proposed weeks before staff released studies confirming that building the two lines next to each other significantly decreases ridership on a three-stop subway.

Staff have not yet released numbers for a one-stop subway, but the number of future riders is expected to be even lower.

Relief line

The promise: Tory proclaimed his transit priorities were SmartTrack and the Scarborough subway. He said SmartTrack would provide relief on the Yonge line while knocking Olivia Chow’s support of the relief line subway.

The reality: The newly proposed staff plan advances all three of those lines among others. Early studies show both SmartTrack and the relief line (starting from a new Nathan Phillips Square station to Pape station) are needed to actually alleviate congestion on the Yonge subway

What now?: In January of this year, Tory continued to stress that the relief line was a 12- to 15-year project. “In the meantime we can do something like SmartTrack,” he argued.

City staff, including chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat and TTC CEO Andy Byford have been vocal about the fact that a relief line is the most pressing priority in the already-jammed transit system.

A recent study of ridership found that both SmartTrack and the relief line are needed to provide actual relief on the Yonge subway by 2031. A consultant’s report said council should not look at funding as an “either/or” exercise.

Tory insists plans for the relief line have not been delayed as a result of SmartTrack work, which he said Keesmaat has confirmed to him. Today, council has no funding plan for the relief subway.