York Region expected to have a 'Goldilocks' winter
Record temperatures in summer and fall have led to 'residual heat', slowing the pace of winter

YorkRegion.com
Nov. 29, 2016
Ali Raza  

York Region is in for a “Goldilocks” winter this season, says Environment Canada.

Not too cold, not too warm. It’s what The Weather Network is calling a “classic Canadian winter.”

Environment Canada meteorologist David Phillips explains why the region won’t see last year’s mild winter where residents dreamed of a white Christmas that never came nor will they see the merciless frigidity of the two previous winters.

Phillips explained that the last seven months (May to November) yielded one of the warmest summers on record and one of the warmest falls on record.

“Why that’s important is because it stores a lot of heat in the ground, lakes, rivers, etc.,” he explained. “That eventually gives up, but it takes a while for winter to really come in when you have residual heat.”

That residual heat, especially in the northern half of York Region closer to Lake Simcoe, will yield lake-effect snow. Phillips says as the Great Lakes and Lake Simcoe are warmer than average, the lake-effect can yield a lot of snow.

As cold air from the Arctic moves south and over the lakes, it causes the warm lake water to condense and be carried away to land where it precipitates in the form of snow. A greater difference between the air and lake temperature yields a greater chance — and amount — of lake-effect snow.

What this means throughout winter is lakes are expected to take much longer to freeze.

It also means that residents in York Region won’t see the severe, persistent cold seen the two previous winters, including the December 2013 ice storm.

“We’re not forecasting a return to what we saw in those years,” said The Weather Network meteorologist Doug Gillham. “We will have periods of frigid weather, but not as those years.”

Last year, Canada’s mild winter was partially caused by a particularly strong El Niño, a warm phase of the Pacific Ocean current. This year, Phillips, Gillham and other Canadian meteorologists all agree that a smaller, milder La Niña will have to battle winds from different directions.

“We think this year it’ll attack us from all directions,” Phillips said. “But nature won’t punish you. They’re will be some shovelling, plowing and pushing, but it’s not going to necessarily bury us.”

Gillham explained that the Great Lakes region — and York Region by proximity — is near a “battle zone” where different air masses of different temperatures meet.

“We’ll have a more active storm track in southern Ontario,” he said. “You get storms when milder weather and colder weather battle out.”

Moist, warm air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean are likely to collide with colder, drier air from the Arctic. The result is various types of winter storms ranging from heavy rain to blizzards.

Residents needn’t worry as the general consensus still points to a “classic Canadian winter”. Phillips thinks it’s good news for those anxiously waiting for spring.

“It’ll be a yo-yo kind of winter, two weeks of this, two weeks of that, and I think that makes winter go a little faster,” he said.