Next steps on SmartTrack are crucial - obviously

Ridership estimates and changes to the SmartTrack plan make it look like Mayor John Tory may have something worthwhile on his hands.

Thestar.com
Jan. 19, 2016
By Edward Keenan

Hey Boss, get out the 100-point type for the headline out of city hall today. I’m thinking it should read, “Institute of the Obvious confirms obvious things are obvious, obviously.” This is big news in Toronto, as you know, because we’re talking about transit planning, where plain things become complicated and complicated things become slogans.

OK, now that I glance again at this report on Mayor John Tory’s SmartTrack plan, I see it is actually prepared by someplace called the University of Toronto, for the Toronto city planner’s office. But the summary of the results holds. Among the key obvious obviousnesses this report confirms through careful study:

1. Running a heavy rail western spur of SmartTrack under Eglinton Ave. is not a good idea, and the mayor and everyone else involved is happily abandoning it in favour of an Eglinton Crosstown LRT extension. This one was so obvious even I could see it coming - you may remember that I wrote last October that Tory should and probably would do this. Well, now there’s a U of T study to confirm I was right about something for once in my sorry life. Not only will the Crosstown option be several times cheaper, but the ridership projection modelling shows it will attract way more riders. Better yet: this conforms with the plan Metrolinx has reportedly been developing.

2. If you run service more frequently, you attract way more riders. Duh, right? But the difference is huge: depending on the fare you’re charging, service every five minutes attracts three to four times as many riders as service every 15 minutes. Service every 10 minutes, as you’d expect, splits the difference, more or less.

3. If you charge less, more people will ride. Look, I told you this stuff was obvious. But again, if you charge the same fare as a TTC ride (currently $3.25), in the every-five-minute scenario, you get 314,567 daily riders. If you charge the same fare as for a GO Train ride (which varies, but for example: $5.65 from Kennedy to Union, plus for many riders another $3.25 for the TTC bus to take them to the station), then you get only 108,000. If you want subway-type ridership, you need to charge subway-type prices.

Now, in her introductory note, chief city planner Jennifer Keesmaat includes an obvious but absolutely essential proviso on these numbers we’re talking about: “I cannot stress enough that the material herein represents the base SmartTrack scenario that has already evolved as a result of the HDR Western Corridor Feasibility Review. However, they do give us an indication of the opportunities associated with the SmartTrack proposal.” Translated into standard English, roughly, that says: this study looked at Tory’s campaign SmartTrack plan, and since the plan has already changed, further study will be needed to see how the numbers change; but this does provide Tory evidence that the whole concept is not goofy.

A couple of obvious conclusions:

As Tory’s critics are quick to point out, he’s having to walk back and adapt some of the plan he laid out during the election campaign some of the things Tory laid out with absolute certainty, including that Eglinton West spur, were patently unworkable. Fair enough, but it’s refreshing to see that no one is stubbornly suggesting pouring billions of dollars into a hole in the ground simply to uphold a past promise.

And to give Tory his due, this ridership modelling and the changes to the plan that are now clear (and some that are still rumoured), make it look like he may have something worthwhile on his hands. I say may because the obvious next steps this study suggests strike me as the most important conclusions.

1. As the plan evolves, the study needs to be updated to make sure the ridership numbers hold up if the first phase of the plan doesn’t go up through Scarborough to Markham, what happens to the numbers? What if there are fewer stops? What if the Scarborough subway is built?

2. The city needs to hear from Metrolinx to see if it can and will provide frequent levels of service. The existing plan for regional express rail that SmartTrack is supposed to build from provided every-15-minute service, which we now know is a loser. There are questions about whether the tracks can handle 12 trains an hour along with the other train services that use them and whether Union Station can actually accommodate the traffic. But the numbers we have show that frequency is a deal-breaker-level question.

3. Speaking of deal-breakers, the city needs to work out something very firm and clear with Metrolinx now: whoever winds up operating this service, any city of Toronto financial contribution needs to be directly contingent on the fare for it being the same as the fare for the subway. Period. And given that: who’s providing subsidies? How big are they expected to need to be?

Obviously, that’s a tall order. But these things form the very core of Tory’s SmartTrack promise, the only reason the city would get involved in developing the province’s express rail plans: to ensure frequent, cheap, reliable service to people in Toronto that will attract significant ridership and improve people’s lives. The numbers here show it may be possible: Tory’s job now is to ensure it can become certain. Obviously.